Real Estate Market Situation: The Background of MÁP+ Maturities and the Real Estate Price Surge

The Background of MÁP+ Maturities and the Real Estate Price Surge

In early 2025, Hungary’s real estate market experienced an unusually active January and February. This surge in demand was primarily driven by the mass maturity of the Hungarian Government Security Plus (MÁP+) series, which had been among the most popular retail investment products in recent years. These government bonds were launched around 2019–2020, typically with a five-year term and increasing annual interest rates. In their final year, they offered interest rates exceeding 6%, leading to annualized returns that often reached or surpassed 14–15%.

As these securities matured, thousands of households and investors found themselves with significant free capital. Due to the central bank’s base rate cuts and the lower yields of new government bonds, this freed-up capital could not be reinvested under similar conditions. Newly available government bonds, such as the BMÁP, offered only 6–8% annual yields, a noticeable decline compared to previous years.

In this situation, a significant portion of retail investors sought safe yet value-retaining alternatives—and turned once again to real estate. In Hungary’s investment culture, real estate has always played a crucial role: it’s tangible, rentable, stable in the long term, and provides a sense of security for many, especially in an inflationary environment.

Market experts had already indicated at the end of last year that a significant increase in demand was expected in the real estate market in early 2025. Investors primarily targeted properties that could be rented out immediately, sold without renovation, well-located, or considered value-retaining in the long term—be it an apartment in the capital, a family house in the suburbs, or a holiday home by Lake Balaton. Money moved quickly, and in many cases, cash buyers appeared, accelerating transactions.

The sudden surge in demand exerted strong pressure on supply. Properties with good price-to-value ratios were snapped up almost immediately, often without negotiation. Traffic on advertising platforms increased, and sellers quickly sensed the demand pressure—leading to a wave of price increases. A widely circulated forecast suggested that real estate prices could rise by up to 15% annually in 2025.

This information—though fundamentally a realistic estimate for the entire year—led many sellers to misinterpret or have exaggerated expectations. Some owners began pricing in the expected annual increase as early as January or February, raising their prices by 10–15% immediately, even if the actual market value of the property did not necessarily justify this.

As a result, a mini real estate boom developed for a short time, especially in the inner districts of the capital, the hilly areas of Buda, the suburbs around Budapest, and popular holiday regions. Demand became overheated, and some sellers tried to take advantage of the “opportunity” to sell quickly and at a good price.

On the buyer’s side, however, not everyone moved simultaneously. Those who had prepared in advance for the MÁP+ maturity acted quickly—they were the ones who secured the best deals. By March, buyers who had missed out on quick decision-making appeared, finding that supply had become more expensive and genuinely valuable properties had been taken. Thus, a post-initial phase of waiting emerged in the market, the effects of which were already felt in the spring months.

It’s also important to note that rapid price increases did not always coincide with actual value growth. In several cases, overpriced properties couldn’t be sold for months because the market stalled, some demand waited, or looked for other investment opportunities. The buyer side adapts quickly: as soon as prices rise too high, interest decreases, decisions are delayed, and momentum breaks.

This rapid cyclicality also demonstrated that the real estate market remains highly sensitive to changes in the financial and economic environment. While the MÁP+ maturities gave a significant short-term boost to demand, this doesn’t necessarily mean that a sustained price increase can be expected throughout the year—especially if the buyer side exhausts itself, and supply begins to stagnate at overpriced levels.

This period clearly illustrated how strongly the real estate market is influenced by the evolution of household investment decisions, and that in the upcoming period, it’s worth observing: will the market be able to maintain momentum, or will waiting and more cautious price levels return in the second half of 2025?

If you’re looking to find the best opportunities in this rapidly changing market environment, feel free to turn to the Kenway team—we’re here to help you navigate and make the best possible decisions in the real estate market.